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NASCAR heads to the third 1.5-mile oval track this season, and also the very first time all year we’ll see a repeat at the rules package and tire wear combination. Texas is a minimal tire wear oval, similar to Las Vegas, prior to the 2017 season as a result of reconfiguration and its repave.
As a result, this race at Texas should most closely resemble the race in Las Vegas Motor Speedway — another 1.5-mile low tire wear oval that utilized the aero duct package.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Read now Not only will I’m leaning heavily on vegas, but we should also consider the races at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway, that have been conducted under comparable, but not totally comparable circumstances. I will also utilize Texas data to gauge track history as the 2017 repave.
There are three matchups that offer value.
Kevin Harvick (+130) over Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner at Texas and also the most popular driver on the circuit, which is driving Busch’s cost on this one. But give me Harvick at Texas. If you’re in Las Vegas for the NCAA Tournament, Westgate has this in +130. In reality, I would still take down Harvick to +120. Looking at flag speed in Las Vegas, Atlanta and Auto Club’s three ovals, Harvick has the speed, edging out. Looking at Las Vegas alone, Harvick had the quickest green flag typical speed while Busch came in third.
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