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This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it is always nice when you are already familiar with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the greatest, but there’s still a lot of money to be obtained. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock at a win and get all the points in the very best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will get the job done in money games and we’ll get over 100 points on this fight. But with that triumph locked in, we just have to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP play of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to need to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I believe we will get him in a somewhat lower possession due to his massive salary, and he’s got an excellent shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is totally faded, then I think you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he’s under possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is your betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it’s available so I think he’s in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments with all the value we’re getting on him, but I am ready to eat that chalk and I do not want to get burned by completely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a good shot at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he is the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal bias but I am not going to have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just looking to attack. I believe this will be a striking battle as well and I think it will be nearer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I believe we will need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. Should you believe Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I’ll only be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he can find that complete and I would not be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every fight, my personal approaches & suggestions, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
Read more: moto-betting.com

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