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There’s a lot of cash to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. Here is actually the first time we have seen a $30k top prize, therefore I think it is worth chasing if you have the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from this struggle against Brian Ortega, so we are now down to 11 battles and we should observe a lot of ties with this card with the more popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass in money games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he must be so highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe think about preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a little weird because I just chose Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups did not have him and you only have to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will be over 50% owned. When he loses, that’s half of the area that’s dead without a shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you also get a triumph with the low owned man to set you at a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Would it really shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that’s Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 decades ago, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for many the fight which should give him a big advantage. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and when he is taken I think he will have the ability to get back up if he is not able to acquire a submission of his own. In case Pettis can win a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to use so you can conserve salary on your lineups. I may even find this fight ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the fight, but I don’t see him paying that large price . He doesn’t fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I want at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather pay up for the men higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
Read more: https://bdbma.com/

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